Adjusted NZ unemployment up to 5.0%

Image taken from Stats NZ Household Labour Force Survey March 2009

The bold line in the graph above shows New Zealand's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. The big thing here is that unemployment has increased to 5.0% at March 09, up from 3.8% a year earlier.

This creates a strong incentive for Marie and I to stay in the UK for the new wee while, as the NZ recession is likely to outlast the UK recession. I can't provide a robust analysis backing this up, but a combination of Olympics regeneration efforts plus multi billion pound infrastructure investment means that the London economy should rebound reasonably soon (ie within the next year or so). Just so long as you don't work in banking, that industry might take a little longer. Plus I have an offer for a bells and whistles civil service perm job, go trains.

A secondary incentive for us to remain is the NZ housing market. I don't think the housing market bubble is anywhere near finished, but this stage I can't offer hard data, just conjecture and anecdotes.
It seems like the Wellington housing market is being artificially propped up by expatriates who have returned in the last year from overseas with mortgage deposits.
This influx of solvent buyers willing to purchase at current market prices has propped up house sale prices.
However the numbers of expatriates is not unlimited, so soon there will be a reduced number of buyers returning from overseas.
Thus the Wellington housing market will soon face a fall in buyer demand, so prices will soften.

Someone with more knowledge states that the propping up of NZ house prices from returning expatriates is a myth, with migration flows strongest from India, the Phillipines and South Africa. He forecasts an increase in unemployment to 8% and a dramatic fall in house prices.

So there you have it. A pessimistic summary of the 300 words above is that there are no jobs and a housing implosion waiting to happen in New Zealand. An alternate viewpoint is that we should wait out the NZ recession from the far side of the world, and engage in some cultural tourism while we are here.
On that note, we are off to Jersey this weekend to watch Eurovision in the only gay bar on the island, preceded by a live appearance by Nikki French - one of Britain's all time worst Eurovision entries. Good times.