Newbie cycling in London

I bought a bike a couple of months back, and have been cycling from canonbury to victoria - about half an hour each way, with a slight incline down in the morning. The route I follow sweeps past Trafalgar Square, Pall Mall and the pelican pond in St James Park, so there is always something nice to look at.
Plus, there is a coffee cart en route with arguably the best coffee in London, which breaks up the morning commute nicely.

Thus far I have achieved the following milestones:
Had my bike stolen from within the communal area of our apartment block 36 hours after purchasing,
Had Marie find it on gumtree,
Popped round to check it was mine, called the cops and got the guy arrested, and got my bike back,
Had a minor crash trying to jump a deceptively high curb, injuring only my pride,
Yelled at numerous pedestrians for stepping out in front of my road,
Worked out exactly how long an emergency stop takes to avoid hitting said pedestrians, and
Worked out the hierarchy of London rush hour traffic. Bigger = right of way, but buses are polite.

It is surprisingly easy to commute in the summer, and interacting with traffic is not actually as bad as it looks from the pavement. The real test will be whether I can continue biking in winter, when it is dark both to and from work. Marie has started biking as well, which is nice.

I have a perfectly functional Trek hybrid, which does exactly what it says on the tin. By North London standards this is not a particularly fashionable bike, as it has multiple gears and multiple brakes. Since starting cycling I have started coveting various bikes of a more fashionable persuasion, but I can't really justify having two bikes. Yet.

Perfect Day

Lunch in sunny London Fields, watching the local denizens on parade.
A sublime gruyere, and a brie with enviable viscosity. No cutlery, so finger licking good.
Then home to watch the penultimate leg of the Tour de France.

My weekend

One of the best musical experiences of my life, I am such a bogan. Skip to the last 30 seconds for some serious pyrotechnical action.

They didn't play Engel or Amerika, but they did play Du Reichst So Gut (my favourite) and Du Hast.

Still buzzing days later.

Florence

Brief thoughts:
1) Michaelangelo's David is really really impressive. Alone this was worth the trip.
2) Italians really know how to cook steak, up there with the French. I never realised this before. Unlike the British, they aren't paranoid about Mad Cow so my roast beef at the central market was marinated in oil and rosemary and then lightly seared around the edges.
3) Fillet ala florentine is a kilo hunk of beef, minimum. I was yelled at for chewing the bone - photo to come shortly. Apparently I was only meant to pose with the bone, not actually gnaw on it.
3) You can get a martini with 42 Below vodka in Florence. It was everything a martini should be - ice cold and lethal, extremely large, and from New Zealand. When I got excited about the origin of the vodka, the bartender poured shots for me, him, the other bartender, and one of the regulars at the bar.
4) Coffee in Italy is consistently good, no matter where you get it. However, we didn't quite stumble over anywhere at the level of Dose or Flat Cap. Mind you, it took Marie and I a while to find excellent coffee in London, so accidentally finding it in a weekend in Florence was always going to be unlikely.

Big hair in slow motion

Just because...

How big will my pension be?

The following extremely simple table is taken from Library of Economics and Liberty, and shows the projected aging of the US population out to 2030 in the context of the US healthcare debate. Numbers are in millions.



Data drawn from US Census bureau, which happens to store international data as well.

My first thought was “impressive dataset, I do like data”. My second thought was “how does New Zealand compare, extrapolated out to 2040, and how will this affect my pension”?



This projected rise in >64 population from 552k in 2010 to 1.1m in 2040 is an increase of over 105%. This level of retiree growth in itself is not necessarily a concern, as New Zealand is incredibly sparsely populated and might be able to handle a doubled population. However this 105% growth in retirees is not matched by a rise in working age population – the 20-64 population only rises by 13% over the same period.

To put it another way: in 2010 there are 23 retirees (age >64) for each 100 workers (age 20-64). By 2040, this ratio has near-doubled to 43 retirees for each 100 workers.

Either
a) taxes on a relatively dwindling number of workers must increase to maintain pensions at historic levels, or
b) pensions must be slashed. The first of these is less politically workable, so slashing of pensions it is.
As at 2010 the NZ state pension for a married couple (my personal circumstances in 2040 all going to plan, logic holds for individual pensions) is NZD360 per week after tax in 2010 dollars.
If we assume the ratios above of 23/100 retirees/workers in 2010 sliding to 43/100 in 2040 prove accurate, and that tax rates on workers are held constant, and that any other factors are held constant, then in 2040 the state pension for a married couple must fall to NZD190 per week after tax in 2010 dollars (360 x 23/43).

Why 2040? I will be 62, so theoretically nearing retirement age. Welcome to the jungle…

Caveats of the above:
Yes I know 65 is potentially low as a retirement age, due to rising life expectancy. However projected (male and female combined) life expectancy only rises from 80.5 years in 2010 to 83.0 years in 2040, so this impact here is minor. Interestingly female life expectancy growth continues to outpace male life expectancy growth, so by 2040 females’ life expectancy of 85.7 years will be 5 years higher than males. Bring on the panthers.
Yes I know 20-64 is an arbitrary span for workers, due to university students etc not entering the labour force until their mid-twenties.